LIVE BLOGGING EVENT

For the Boston Red Sox, the 2009 season is shaping up to be a lot like 2006. In both seasons, they start out hot and enjoy a small lead over the Yankees throughout most of the first half. But sometime around end the of July, things start to turn, and by mid-August the Yankees are comfortably out in front.

In both seasons, the Yankees begin to play really well in July for a variety of reasons: a key player returns from injury, new teammates finally get used to the tense media environment, or maybe just a simple regression to the mean: as the season wears on and the sample size increases, the most talented and highest-paid team naturally rises to the top. The Red Sox, meanwhile, suffer a handful of mid-season injuries and media distractions and the season unravels. Varitek breaks his elbow, Wakefield hurts his back. Manny complains about an aching knee, then forgets which one to limp on. Ortiz finds his name on the steroid list and helplessly denies any wrongdoing. Boston's reliance on aging, broken-down pitchers--Schilling, Smoltz--ultimately backfires.

Three years ago New York came into Boston to play 5 games in 4 days over a very long weekend, with the Yankees leading the East by, I think, two games. [Editor's note: it was 1.5 games.] I was in Argentina on my post-Bar trip, so I barely managed to follow the series. The first day, Friday, held a double-header which the Yankees swept. Saturday afternoon saw another Yankee win; the Sox were now down by [4.5] games and their season was quickly going belly up.

That Sunday, I traveled alone to a small town in central Argentina, where I checked into a little hotel (the same hotel where I set my tepid Hemingway piece). For the first time on my trip, my room had cable TV. That evening after dinner, too exhausted by the day's travel to explore the town, I switched on the TV and found, of all things, ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. That game was probably the best the Yanks and Sox had played since the 2004 playoffs. I think Schilling pitched. The Sox were up 1 in the 9th, with Papelbon on the mound to close things out. With two outs, he threw an outside fastball to Jeter that the smarmy Yankee shortstop punched weakly to the opposite field to score Cabrera and tie the game. New York beat up on rookie Hansen in the 10th and the game was over. Watching this game, alone in Argentina, is one of my fondest baseball memories.

David Wells--erstwhile Yankee--pitched well the next day, but no one was surprised when Boston fell 2-1. The Sox continued to flounder afterwards, failing to make the playoffs for the only time since 2002.

And so anyway, the same thing is happening to the Red Sox right now. This time it's a four game series played in New York, but otherwise the setup is eerily similar. The Yanks destroyed the Sox on Thursday, then played an historic game last night, finally winning 2-0 in the 15th inning on an A-Rod home run. I have a feeling last night was the game, like the Sunday night contest in 2006, that marked the end of Boston's season.

Of course I'm happy to be wrong. Today's game is on Fox and starts in about an hour. I'm going to live blog it. But I wanted to post this first, so people won't think I'm piggybacking on Joe Buck and Tim McCarver when they talk incessantly about the "Boston Massacre" of August 2006.

Probably this will suck. But whenever McCarver is involved, entertainment stands a fighting chance. Wish me well.